Prediction Is A Form of Agency

We normally think of agency as something that requires action. You have agency in a game because you can affect the outcome of events in the game. But there is another form of agency that can be satisfying too: prediction. When players successfully predict what will happen, it creates a sense of power and control.

Much of the fun of games comes from the process of learning. You form heuristics and play to test them, climbing the "heuristic tree". Positive prediction errors and rapid feedback lead to dopamine spikes and flow. But there are two types of heuristics: positional and directional. Positional heuristics help you understand the state of the game, while directional heuristics tell you what to do. We can likewise split agency into positional and directional forms.

The first genre you might think of when considering positional agency is betting games. In Camel Up, you place bets on camels that move randomly around the racetrack. Even though you have no control over them, you still feel powerful when you successfully predict the winner.

Betting games still have directional agency because you choose your bets. A purer example is Magical Athlete, where the only real choice you make is which racer to use for each round. During the race, you guess what will happen due to the interactions between the powers. It is satisfying to see your predictions come to pass, even if you don't end up winning the race.

Prediction gives players something to do during other players' turns. In Codenames, it is fun to silently (or not so silently) predict what the other team will guess during their turn. In Carcassonne, it is fun to look for places your opponent might place a tile they drew. In spelling games, it is fun to search for words that others might spell.

Predicting outcomes does not change what happens in a game. But it still makes us feel in control because we understand the system. This suggests that foreshadowing increases agency by making it easier to predict what will happen. Likewise, making games too unpredictable robs players of agency.