Foreshadowing and the Paradox of Agency

Players want two contradictory things in games: to feel in control of the outcome and to be surprised by it. Surprise normally contradicts agency because players feel helpless to predict the future, but you can restore their feeling of control by giving enough hints ahead of time to make outcomes feel natural when they occur.

This technique is called foreshadowing and is better known in fiction, where it prevents solutions from feeling unearned. If a villain is suddenly killed by an unknown side character who appears out of nowhere, it feels arbitrary. If the reader saw scenes where that side character tracked the villain while talking about how much they hated them, their appearance feels natural. Readers don't need to predict the exact outcome in advance; even connecting the dots afterward makes a resolution feel earned.

In game design, foreshadowing serves a similar role: it makes surprises feel fair to the player. While foreshadowing in fiction is most useful for solutions, in games it is best used on problems. If you draw an event card that says "you lose," it feels arbitrary and unavoidable. But if you saw it going into the deck ten turns ago, it feels like something you could have responded to. Agency is less about acting and more about believing that the world can be understood and that informed decisions are possible.

Moon Colony Bloodbath is a game about predictable disasters. It asks players to build a doomed moon colony and watch it fall apart. Every turn, you reveal one card from the Progress deck and follow its instructions. When the deck runs out, you shuffle it and continue, so the cards become familiar even if their order changes. The worst cards are robots that slaughter your colonists. Every time you resolve the Glitch card, you add a new robot to the deck; after that, the robot appears repeatedly. Because you know it is in the deck, it does not feel unfair when revealed. The only true surprise is when the robot is first added due to Glitch, but it is a surprise you expect after experiencing the Glitch card multiple times.

While random events benefit from foreshadowing, a less obvious but equally important use is for other players' actions, especially those that harm you. If a player plays a card that steals an apple from you, it can feel random and unavoidable. But if the card requires their spy to be positioned on your granary first, it feels more logical. Foreshadowing opponents' actions makes them feel fairer and makes successfully predicting them more interactive.

In Catan, players can use knight cards to move the robber and steal resources from opponents. This can be a big surprise because a knight can be used no matter where the robber is and is kept secret until used. The Cities and Knights expansion replaced knight cards with knight tokens on the board rather than in players' hands. To move the robber, a knight token must be activated and adjacent to the hex where the robber stands. This makes it easier to predict when an opponent will move the robber because they must first move the knight into position and activate it, telegraphing their intent.

There are many ways to foreshadow, some more effective than others. Foreshadowing doesn't need to be obvious in advance. Even if players only realize what a hint meant afterward, recognizing the hint makes them feel like they are mastering their environment. Likewise, surprises don't need to be complete shocks; a vague promise suddenly made clear is often more satisfying.